Portsmouth 0-1 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 32 as Portsmouth welcome Sheffield Utd to Fratton Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Portsmouth stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Portsmouth at Fratton Park this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Sheffield Utd have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sheffield Utd away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Portsmouth 1.60 PPG, Sheffield Utd 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Portsmouth register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sheffield Utd in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Portsmouth, 2 for Sheffield Utd and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Sheffield Utd winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sheffield Utd in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 53% versus Sheffield Utd 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 53% | Sheffield Utd 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.63 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.012 / defence 0.908 | Sheffield Utd attack 1.022 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.144. Sheffield Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Portsmouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 75 Portsmouth games / 77 Sheffield Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 49% | Draw 27% | Sheffield Utd 23%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Sheffield Utd 4.35. Portsmouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Portsmouth are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portsmouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Portsmouth 60% | Sheffield Utd 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 49% | Draw 27% | Sheffield Utd 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Portsmouth 1.63 / Sheffield Utd 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.012 / def 0.908 | Sheffield Utd attack 1.022 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sheffield Utd xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd?
Portsmouth 0 - 1 Sheffield Utd.
Where is Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd part of?
Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 49% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd?
Record (3 meetings): Portsmouth 0W | Draws 1 | Sheffield Utd 2W.
What form are Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Sheffield Utd (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Portsmouth's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Utd's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Sheffield Utd's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.64
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.69
1.06
Sheffield Utd xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
5%
21.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.06 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Portsmouth come into this having played 75 games, going 22W 21D 32L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Sheffield Utd sit at 1.68 PPG from 75 outings (39W 9D 27L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Sheffield Utd carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Portsmouth's home form reads 17W 10D 10L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Portsmouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sheffield Utd have taken 1.49 points per game from 37 outings (17W 4D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Portsmouth are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 1.41 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Utd in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 22W 21D 32L in their last 75 games (1.16 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 39W 9D 27L in their last 75 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Sheffield Utd away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.65 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Sheffield Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sheffield Utd in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sheffield Utd have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2025, when Sheffield Utd won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Portsmouth's record when hosting Sheffield Utd specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Portsmouth
1
Draws
3
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd?
From 4 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 0, Sheffield Utd have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Portsmouth 0-1 Sheffield Utd.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 54%, Sheffield Utd 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Portsmouth) and 49% (Sheffield Utd).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sheffield Utd in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Sheffield Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 43% of Sheffield Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Portsmouth's recent games and 49% of Sheffield Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sheffield Utd in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sheffield Utd defy the odds to beat Portsmouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat Portsmouth 0-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.63 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.06 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Portsmouth fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Sheffield Utd attack 1.02 / defence 1.24, drawn from 75/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 49% | Draw 27% | Sheffield Utd 23%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Sheffield Utd win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 53%, Sheffield Utd 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.