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Poisson rates Ipswich at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Ipswich encounter.

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Full Analysis

Pride Park plays host to Derby versus Ipswich in Championship, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 12:31 UTC.

Form

Derby (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Derby's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Pride Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ipswich have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Ipswich away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Derby, 2.00 for Ipswich — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Derby register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Ipswich in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Derby 0W, Ipswich 2W, 1D.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).

Ipswich goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 58% versus Ipswich 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 43% | Ipswich 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.16 xG and Ipswich 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.869 / defence 1.099 | Ipswich attack 1.088 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.143. Data: 76 Derby games / 29 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Derby 30% | Draw 29% | Ipswich 40%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Ipswich 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derby 70% | Ipswich 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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