Burnley 5-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burnley face Cardiff.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Burnley welcome Cardiff to Turf Moor in Championship (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 17 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Burnley — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Burnley at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cardiff stand at 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Cardiff have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Burnley) versus 0.90 (Cardiff). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Burnley have won 1, Cardiff 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 May 2023, ended Burnley 3–0 Cardiff — a Burnley win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Burnley in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cardiff in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 64% versus Cardiff 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 62% | Cardiff 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.33 xG and Cardiff 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.867 / defence 1.150 | Cardiff attack 0.980 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.221. Data: built from Burnley's last 1 games and Cardiff's last 47. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Burnley 36% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 38%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.77 | Draw 3.88 | Cardiff 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cardiff at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Cardiff's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burnley 70% (last 10 home games) | Cardiff 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Burnley 1 games, Cardiff 47) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, matchday 2 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 17 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 36% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Burnley 1.33 / Cardiff 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.867 / def 1.150 | Cardiff attack 0.980 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Cardiff xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Cardiff FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Cardiff kick off?
Burnley vs Cardiff kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Cardiff?
Burnley 5 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is Burnley vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Cardiff part of?
Burnley vs Cardiff is a Championship fixture (matchday 2) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 36% chance of winning, Cardiff a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Burnley and Cardiff will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burnley vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.87x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 1 games and Cardiff's last 47, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
36%
2.77
26%
3.88
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.71
1.38
Cardiff xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Cardiff Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Burnley and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Burnley and 1.38 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley's recent record stands at 6W 9D 24L from 39 games, a 0.69 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 15W 4D 20L across 39 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cardiff by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 2W 4D 13L from their last 19 home games — 0.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 8W 1D 10L across their last 19 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.00 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Cardiff
Early Season
Burnley (Home) vs Cardiff (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Early Season
Cardiff
Early Season
❓ Burnley vs Cardiff Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 6W 9D 24L in their last 39 games (0.69 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 15W 4D 20L in their last 39 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Cardiff away?
Cardiff's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.53 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Aug 2024, when Burnley won Burnley 5-0 Cardiff.
Burnley's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Burnley
1
Draws
1
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Cardiff H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Cardiff?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 3, Cardiff have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Burnley and Cardiff last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Cardiff 5-4 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Cardiff?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 58%, Cardiff 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Burnley) and 53% (Cardiff). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 37% of games; Cardiff in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Cardiff Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Cardiff matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Burnley's recent matches and 42% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burnley and Cardiff matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Burnley's matches and 53% of Cardiff's.
Do Burnley and Cardiff matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Burnley's recent matches and 68% of Cardiff's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Burnley run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Cardiff 5-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.33 xG and Cardiff 1.38 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cardiff landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Cardiff attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 1/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 36% | Draw 26% | Cardiff 38%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 62%, Cardiff 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Cardiff's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cardiff arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Burnley winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.26 average — tighter than their form line. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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