Swansea 1-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swansea host Cardiff at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Swansea have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swansea have posted 5W 0D 5L at Swansea.com Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cardiff have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Swansea at 1.40 PPG versus Cardiff's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Swansea: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Cardiff, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Swansea winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Swansea and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Cardiff in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 56% versus Cardiff 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 56% | Cardiff 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 2.19 xG and Cardiff 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.067 / defence 0.875 | Cardiff attack 0.857 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.170. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Swansea games / 48 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 67% | Draw 19% | Cardiff 13%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Cardiff 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Swansea (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swansea at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Swansea 20% | Cardiff 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 67% | Draw 19% | Cardiff 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 52% | xG Swansea 2.19 / Cardiff 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.067 / def 0.875 | Cardiff attack 0.857 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Swansea (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cardiff xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Cardiff kick off?
Swansea vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Cardiff?
Swansea 1 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is Swansea vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Cardiff part of?
Swansea vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 67% chance of winning, Cardiff a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Swansea and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Cardiff?
Record (6 meetings): Swansea 5W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 1W.
What form are Swansea and Cardiff in?
Swansea (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Cardiff (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Swansea's attack rating (1.07) and Cardiff's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.17
13%
7.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Swansea xG
Total xG
3.07
0.88
Cardiff xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
7.41
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
11%
8.98
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
2%
66.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Swansea and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Swansea and 0.88 for Cardiff, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Cardiff?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea's recent record stands at 16W 12D 20L from 48 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Swansea, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 19W 5D 24L across 48 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cardiff, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.25 PPG, Cardiff on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 9W 5D 10L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 9W 2D 13L across 24 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.10 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Early Season
Cardiff
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 games (1.25 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 19W 5D 24L in their last 48 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Cardiff away?
Swansea's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.33 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Swansea won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Swansea
1
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, Swansea have won 5, Cardiff have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Cardiff 3-0 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Cardiff?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 50%, Cardiff 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Swansea) and 58% (Cardiff). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cardiff in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Swansea's recent matches and 46% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Swansea's matches and 58% of Cardiff's.
Do Swansea and Cardiff tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea and Cardiff share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Swansea and Cardiff drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 2.19 xG and Cardiff 0.88 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Swansea fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against Cardiff attack 0.86 / defence 1.39, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 67% | Draw 19% | Cardiff 13%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 56%, Cardiff 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Cardiff's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.25 PPG, Cardiff 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.