Plymouth 1-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Plymouth face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Plymouth welcome Hull City to Home Park in Championship (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 17 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Plymouth have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hull City — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hull City away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Plymouth at 1.00 PPG versus Hull City's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Plymouth have won 1, Hull City 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2024, ended Plymouth 1–0 Hull City — a Plymouth win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hull City trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 51% versus Hull City 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 55% | Hull City 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Plymouth surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Hull City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.32 xG and Hull City 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.984 / defence 1.021 | Hull City attack 1.023 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.221. Data: built from Plymouth's last 47 games and Hull City's last 47. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 38% | Draw 26% | Hull City 36%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.64 | Draw 3.79 | Hull City 2.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Plymouth 30% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Plymouth 47 games, Hull City 47) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 2 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 38% | Draw 26% | Hull City 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Plymouth 1.32 / Hull City 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.984 / def 1.021 | Hull City attack 1.023 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Hull City xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs Hull City kick off?
Plymouth vs Hull City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Hull City?
Plymouth 1 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Plymouth vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Hull City part of?
Plymouth vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 2) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 38% chance of winning, Hull City a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Plymouth and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plymouth vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (0.98) and Hull City's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 47 games and Hull City's last 47, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
38%
2.64
26%
3.79
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.60
1.27
Hull City xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.27 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 12D 22L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.51 PPG from 47 outings (19W 14D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Hull City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Plymouth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plymouth's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across their last 23 home games, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.61 points per game from their last 23 away games (11W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.47 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City in 64%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
Plymouth (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Plymouth vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and Hull City in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 13W 12D 22L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while Hull City have gone 19W 14D 14L in their last 47 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.52 PPG; Hull City away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 4 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Plymouth's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
2
Draws
1
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Hull City?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 1, Hull City have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2025: Hull City 2-0 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 52%, Hull City 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Plymouth and 70% for Hull City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plymouth have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and Hull City matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Plymouth's games and 65% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Plymouth and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Plymouth's matches and 70% of Hull City's.
Do Plymouth and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Plymouth's recent matches and 78% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth and Hull City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth and Hull City finished level at 1-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.32 xG and Hull City 1.27 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Hull City attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 38% | Draw 26% | Hull City 36%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, Hull City 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hull City arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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