Plymouth 1-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 2 as Plymouth welcome Hull City to Home Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Plymouth have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Plymouth have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Home Park this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hull City — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Plymouth at 1.00 PPG versus Hull City's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Plymouth, 0 for Hull City and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Plymouth winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hull City trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 51% versus Hull City 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 55% | Hull City 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.32 xG and Hull City 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.984 / defence 1.021 | Hull City attack 1.023 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.221. Data: 47 Plymouth games / 47 Hull City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 38% | Draw 26% | Hull City 36%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Hull City 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 30% | Hull City 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (47 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 38% | Draw 26% | Hull City 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Plymouth 1.32 / Hull City 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.984 / def 1.021 | Hull City attack 1.023 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Hull City xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Hull City kick off?
Plymouth vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Hull City?
Plymouth 1 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Plymouth vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Hull City part of?
Plymouth vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 38% chance of winning, Hull City a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Plymouth and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Hull City?
Record (2 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 1 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Hull City in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Hull City (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (0.98) and Hull City's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (47/47 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
38%
2.64
26%
3.79
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.60
1.27
Hull City xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.27 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plymouth come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 12D 22L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.51 PPG from 47 outings (19W 14D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hull City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Plymouth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plymouth's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.61 points per game from 23 outings (11W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.47 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Hull City in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 13W 12D 22L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while Hull City have gone 19W 14D 14L in their last 47 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.52 PPG; Hull City away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Plymouth's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
2
Draws
1
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Hull City?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Hull City have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Hull City 2-0 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 52%, Hull City 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Plymouth and 70% for Hull City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plymouth have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Hull City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Plymouth's games and 65% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Plymouth's matches and 70% of Hull City's.
Do Plymouth and Hull City tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hull City in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth and Hull City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth and Hull City finished level at 1-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.32 xG and Hull City 1.27 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Hull City attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 38% | Draw 26% | Hull City 36%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, Hull City 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hull City arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.