Sunderland 1-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sunderland and Burnley meet at Stadium of Light in Championship, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sunderland's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Sunderland have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sunderland have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadium of Light — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Burnley (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Burnley have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sunderland 0W, Burnley 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 38% versus Burnley 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 40% | Burnley 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.84 xG and Burnley 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.110 / defence 0.933 | Burnley attack 1.188 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.186. Data: 48 Sunderland games / 2 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 49% | Draw 24% | Burnley 27%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Burnley 3.70. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 40% | Burnley 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 49% | Draw 24% | Burnley 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Sunderland 1.84 / Burnley 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.110 / def 0.933 | Burnley attack 1.188 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Burnley xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Burnley kick off?
Sunderland vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Burnley?
Sunderland 1 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Sunderland vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Burnley part of?
Sunderland vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 49% chance of winning, Burnley a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sunderland and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Burnley?
Record (2 meetings): Sunderland 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Sunderland and Burnley in?
Sunderland (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Burnley (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sunderland's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.19x) against Sunderland's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 48/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.20
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Sunderland xG
Total xG
3.16
1.31
Burnley xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
4%
23.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.31 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Sunderland have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 14W 7D 19L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burnley's form line: 7W 9D 24L from 40 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sunderland are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sunderland have posted 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (9W 2D 9L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 4W 5D 11L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.25 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Burnley in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 14W 7D 19L in their last 40 games (1.23 PPG), while Burnley have gone 7W 9D 24L in their last 40 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Burnley away?
Sunderland's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.45 PPG; Burnley away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Burnley in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won 3-0 on 2 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
2
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, Burnley have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Sunderland 3-0 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 40%, Burnley 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Sunderland and 65% for Burnley. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Sunderland's games and 70% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sunderland vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Sunderland's matches and 65% of Burnley's.
Do Sunderland and Burnley tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Burnley in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Burnley 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Burnley 1-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.84 xG and Burnley 1.31 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Burnley landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.11 / defence 0.93 against Burnley attack 1.19 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 49% | Draw 24% | Burnley 27%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 40%, Burnley 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Burnley's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.