Derby 1-0 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Middlesbrough at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Middlesbrough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Middlesbrough at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Middlesbrough — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Middlesbrough have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Middlesbrough have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derby at 2.00 PPG versus Middlesbrough's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Derby have won 0, Middlesbrough 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 1–4 with Middlesbrough winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Middlesbrough in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 47% versus Middlesbrough 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 55% | Middlesbrough 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.19 xG and Middlesbrough 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.867 / defence 1.150 | Middlesbrough attack 1.105 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.307. Data: 1 Derby games / 47 Middlesbrough games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Derby 27% | Draw 24% | Middlesbrough 48%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Middlesbrough 2.08. Middlesbrough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Middlesbrough are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derby 40% | Middlesbrough 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 27% | Draw 24% | Middlesbrough 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Derby 1.19 / Middlesbrough 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.867 / def 1.150 | Middlesbrough attack 1.105 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Middlesbrough xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Derby vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Middlesbrough?
Derby 1 - 0 Middlesbrough.
Where is Derby vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Middlesbrough part of?
Derby vs Middlesbrough is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 27% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Derby and Middlesbrough will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Middlesbrough?
Record (2 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Middlesbrough 1W.
What form are Derby and Middlesbrough in?
Derby (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Middlesbrough (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Derby's attack rating (0.87) and Middlesbrough's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Middlesbrough's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/47 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
27%
3.64
24%
4.12
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Derby xG
Total xG
2.85
1.66
Middlesbrough xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
5%
19.13
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Derby and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Derby and 1.66 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby come into this having played 47 games, going 28W 8D 11L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Middlesbrough sit at 1.53 PPG from 47 outings (21W 9D 17L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Middlesbrough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Middlesbrough — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Derby's home form reads 15W 4D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Middlesbrough have taken 1.52 points per game from 23 outings (10W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.53 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
Middlesbrough
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 28W 8D 11L in their last 47 games (1.96 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 21W 9D 17L in their last 47 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Middlesbrough away?
Derby's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 2.13 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Derby or Middlesbrough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Middlesbrough in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Middlesbrough runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Middlesbrough won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derby's record when hosting Middlesbrough specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
3
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Middlesbrough?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Middlesbrough have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Middlesbrough last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Derby 1-0 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 52%, Middlesbrough 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Derby and 70% for Middlesbrough. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Middlesbrough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Derby's games and 74% of Middlesbrough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Middlesbrough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Derby's matches and 70% of Middlesbrough's.
Do Derby and Middlesbrough tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Middlesbrough in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Middlesbrough 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Middlesbrough 1-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.19 xG and Middlesbrough 1.66 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Middlesbrough landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Middlesbrough attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 1/47 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Derby 27% | Draw 24% | Middlesbrough 48%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 55%, Middlesbrough 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.53. That form edge translated into the three points. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.