Cardiff 0-2 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Sunderland travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 August 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cardiff haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cardiff have posted 4W 1D 5L at Cardiff City Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Sunderland — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Sunderland haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Sunderland have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cardiff 1.20 PPG, Sunderland 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Cardiff have won 2, Sunderland 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Sunderland winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cardiff in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 48% versus Sunderland 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 52% | Sunderland 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.18 xG and Sunderland 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.915 / defence 1.113 | Sunderland attack 0.909 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.198. Data: 46 Cardiff games / 46 Sunderland games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cardiff 35% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 37%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Sunderland 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 50% | Sunderland 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 35% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Cardiff 1.18 / Sunderland 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.915 / def 1.113 | Sunderland attack 0.909 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sunderland xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Sunderland kick off?
Cardiff vs Sunderland kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Cardiff 0 - 2 Sunderland.
Where is Cardiff vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Sunderland part of?
Cardiff vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 35% chance of winning, Sunderland a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cardiff and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Sunderland?
Record (4 meetings): Cardiff 2W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 2W.
What form are Cardiff and Sunderland in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Cardiff (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
35%
2.82
28%
3.61
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.39
1.21
Sunderland xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.21 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cardiff's recent record stands at 19W 5D 22L from 46 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. Cardiff haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 22L across 46 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. Sunderland haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.35 PPG, Sunderland on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 10W 3D 10L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 6W 6D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cardiff are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.13 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Pre-Season
Sunderland
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 19W 5D 22L in their last 46 games (1.35 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 16W 8D 22L in their last 46 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Sunderland away?
Cardiff's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.43 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sunderland have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Cardiff's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cardiff
0
Draws
4
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Sunderland have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Sunderland 2-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 48%, Sunderland 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cardiff) and 35% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 30%; Cardiff have failed to score in 30% of games; Sunderland in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cardiff's recent matches and 44% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cardiff's recent games and 35% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Sunderland tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Cardiff 0-2 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.18 xG and Sunderland 1.21 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cardiff fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against Sunderland attack 0.91 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 35% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 37%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 52%, Sunderland 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.35 PPG, Sunderland 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.