Teplice 2-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Teplice welcome Zlin to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Teplice) versus 1.00 (Zlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Teplice, 3 for Zlin and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Zlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Zlin in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 60% and Zlin 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 55% | Zlin 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.33 xG and Zlin 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.741 / defence 0.813 | Zlin attack 0.900 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.184. Teplice's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Teplice games / 48 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 47% | Draw 28% | Zlin 24%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Zlin 4.17. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Zlin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 47% | Draw 28% | Zlin 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Teplice 1.33 / Zlin 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.741 / def 0.813 | Zlin attack 0.900 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Teplice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Zlin xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Zlin kick off?
Teplice vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Zlin?
Teplice 2 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Teplice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Zlin part of?
Teplice vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 47% chance of winning, Zlin a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Teplice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zlin?
Record (6 meetings): Teplice 2W | Draws 1 | Zlin 3W.
What form are Teplice and Zlin in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Zlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Teplice's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.52
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.20
0.87
Zlin xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
6%
15.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Teplice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Teplice and 0.87 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice's recent record stands at 16W 14D 23L from 53 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 11W 18D 24L across 53 games — 0.96 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.17 PPG, Zlin on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 9W 11D 6L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 2W 10D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.23 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Zlin in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 16W 14D 23L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while Zlin have gone 11W 18D 24L in their last 53 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Zlin away?
Teplice's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.46 PPG; Zlin away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Teplice won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
1
Draws
5
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Zlin have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Zlin 2-4 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 54%, Zlin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Teplice) and 54% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 31% of games; Zlin in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Teplice's recent matches and 54% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Teplice's recent games and 54% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Zlin tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Zlin in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Zlin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Zlin 2-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.33 xG and Zlin 0.87 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.74 / defence 0.81 against Zlin attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 47% | Draw 28% | Zlin 24%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 55%, Zlin 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.17 PPG, Zlin 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.