Teplice 2-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Teplice face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Teplice welcome Zlin to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Teplice stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Teplice have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Zlin have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Zlin's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Teplice) versus 1.00 (Zlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Teplice have won 1, Zlin 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Teplice 1–2 Zlin — a Zlin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Zlin in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 60% and Zlin 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 55% | Zlin 58%). Note also that Zlin surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Teplice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.33 xG and Zlin 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.741 / defence 0.813 | Zlin attack 0.900 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.184. Teplice's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.33. Data: built from Teplice's last 48 games and Zlin's last 48.
Result probabilities: Teplice 47% | Draw 28% | Zlin 24%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.11 | Draw 3.52 | Zlin 4.13. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Teplice's last 10 home games and Zlin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 40% (last 10 home games) | Zlin 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 20 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 47% | Draw 28% | Zlin 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Teplice 1.33 / Zlin 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.741 / def 0.813 | Zlin attack 0.900 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Teplice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Zlin xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Zlin FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Zlin kick off?
Teplice vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Zlin?
Teplice 2 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Teplice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Zlin part of?
Teplice vs Zlin is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 20) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 47% chance of winning, Zlin a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Teplice and Zlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Teplice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Teplice's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 48 games and Zlin's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.52
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.20
0.87
Zlin xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
6%
15.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Zlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Teplice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Teplice and 0.87 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice's recent record stands at 16W 14D 23L from 53 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 11W 18D 24L across 53 games — 0.96 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.17 PPG, Zlin on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 9W 11D 6L from their last 26 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 2W 10D 14L across their last 26 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.23 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Zlin in 62%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Zlin
Blended
Teplice (Home) vs Zlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Teplice vs Zlin Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 16W 14D 23L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while Zlin have gone 11W 18D 24L in their last 53 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Zlin away?
Teplice's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.46 PPG; Zlin away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Teplice have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 May 2022, when Zlin won Zlin 3-0 Teplice.
Teplice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
1
Draws
5
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Zlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zlin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 4, Zlin have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Teplice and Zlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Zlin 1-3 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 54%, Zlin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Teplice) and 54% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 31% of games; Zlin in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Zlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Zlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Teplice's recent matches and 54% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Zlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Teplice's recent games and 54% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Zlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Teplice's recent matches and 65% of Zlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Zlin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Zlin 2-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.33 xG and Zlin 0.87 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.74 / defence 0.81 against Zlin attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 47% | Draw 28% | Zlin 24%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 55%, Zlin 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.17 PPG, Zlin 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.