Pardubice 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Teplice meet at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CFIG Arena, Pardubice have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Pardubice, 2 for Teplice and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Pardubice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Teplice — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 46% versus Teplice 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 43% | Teplice 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.30 xG and Teplice 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.813 / defence 0.913 | Teplice attack 0.985 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.225. Data: 50 Pardubice games / 49 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 41% | Draw 28% | Teplice 31%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Teplice 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pardubice as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 40% | Teplice 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 41% | Draw 28% | Teplice 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Pardubice 1.30 / Teplice 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.813 / def 0.913 | Teplice attack 0.985 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Teplice xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Teplice kick off?
Pardubice vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Teplice?
Pardubice 1 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Pardubice vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Teplice part of?
Pardubice vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 41% chance of winning, Teplice a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pardubice and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Teplice?
Record (4 meetings): Pardubice 2W | Draws 0 | Teplice 2W.
What form are Pardubice and Teplice in?
Pardubice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Teplice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.81x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.98x) against Pardubice's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.62
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.40
1.10
Teplice xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
9%
11.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.10 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice's recent record stands at 17W 9D 28L from 54 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 23L across 54 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Pardubice against 1.20 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 8W 6D 12L from 26 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 7W 3D 16L across 26 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.17 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Teplice in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 17W 9D 28L in their last 54 games (1.11 PPG), while Teplice have gone 17W 14D 23L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Teplice away?
Pardubice's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.15 PPG; Teplice away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 5-1 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Teplice have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pardubice 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 42%, Teplice 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Pardubice) and 73% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Pardubice's recent matches and 65% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Pardubice's recent games and 73% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Teplice tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Teplice in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Pardubice and Teplice drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.30 xG and Teplice 1.10 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Teplice attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 41% | Draw 28% | Teplice 31%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 43%, Teplice 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.11 PPG, Teplice 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.