Zlin 1-1 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zlin face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Slavia Praha travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 14 February 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin at Stadion Letná this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letná than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Slavia Praha's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Zlin's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zlin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Slavia Praha in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Slavia Praha have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Zlin.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Slavia Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Zlin in-play tendencies (54 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Slavia Praha in-play tendencies (54 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 63% versus Slavia Praha 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 59% | Slavia Praha 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.59 xG and Slavia Praha 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.189 / defence 1.378 | Slavia Praha attack 1.308 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.245. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — the away xG of 2.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Zlin games / 49 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 27% | Draw 20% | Slavia Praha 53%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 3.70 | Draw 5.00 | Slavia Praha 1.89. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.83 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 70% | Slavia Praha 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 27% | Draw 20% | Slavia Praha 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 71% | xG Zlin 1.59 / Slavia Praha 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.189 / def 1.378 | Slavia Praha attack 1.308 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Slavia Praha xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Zlin vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 14 February 2024 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Slavia Praha?
Zlin 1 - 1 Slavia Praha.
Where is Zlin vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Slavia Praha part of?
Zlin vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 27% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 53% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Zlin and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slavia Praha?
Record (5 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 0 | Slavia Praha 5W.
What form are Zlin and Slavia Praha in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zlin's attack rating (1.19) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 2.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
27%
3.68
20%
4.95
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.83
2.25
Slavia Praha xG
3.68
27%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.46
Clean Sheet
11%
9.44
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
3%
34.77
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Zlin and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Zlin and 2.25 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin's recent record stands at 11W 18D 25L from 54 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha, meanwhile, have gone 39W 9D 6L across 54 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.39 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zlin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 9W 7D 9L from 25 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Slavia Praha's away record stands at 14W 7D 4L across 25 trips, a 1.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.54 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 11W 18D 25L in their last 54 games (0.94 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 39W 9D 6L in their last 54 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.36 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Zlin or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Slavia Praha runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Slavia Praha won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Zlin
2
Draws
6
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slavia Praha?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Zlin 1-3 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 72%, Slavia Praha 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Zlin) and 52% (Slavia Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Zlin's games and 56% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Zlin's matches and 52% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Zlin and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zlin and Slavia Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 17, as Zlin and Slavia Praha drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.59 xG and Slavia Praha 2.25 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slavia Praha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.19 / defence 1.38 against Slavia Praha attack 1.31 / defence 0.86, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 27% | Draw 20% | Slavia Praha 53%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 59%, Slavia Praha 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.