Slavia Praha 4-3 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face FK Jablonec.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FK Jablonec make the trip to Fortuna Arena to face Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Slavia Praha (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha at Fortuna Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena.
FK Jablonec have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Slavia Praha's favour (2.30 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Slavia Praha lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 51% versus FK Jablonec 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 60% | FK Jablonec 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.72 xG and FK Jablonec 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.113 / defence 0.822 | FK Jablonec attack 0.840 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.199. Data: 48 Slavia Praha games / 49 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 59% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 18%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | FK Jablonec 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Slavia Praha 50% | FK Jablonec 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 59% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Slavia Praha 1.72 / FK Jablonec 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.113 / def 0.822 | FK Jablonec attack 0.840 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.83
FK Jablonec xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Slavia Praha 4 - 3 FK Jablonec.
Where is Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec part of?
Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 59% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec?
Record (3 meetings): Slavia Praha 2W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.84x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
59%
1.71
24%
4.20
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.55
0.83
FK Jablonec xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
3%
31.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.83 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.32 PPG on a 38W 9D 6L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec's form line: 14W 18D 21L from 53 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.19 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FK Jablonec.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.74 PPG from 27 outings (24W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.32 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 7D 15L from 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.51 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.26 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec in 62%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 38W 9D 6L in their last 53 games (2.32 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 14W 18D 21L in their last 53 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or FK Jablonec away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.74 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Slavia Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 5-1 on 29 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
2
Draws
1
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 5-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 48%, FK Jablonec 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Slavia Praha and 59% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 59% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Slavia Praha's matches and 59% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Slavia Praha and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out FK Jablonec 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat FK Jablonec 4-3 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.72 xG and FK Jablonec 0.83 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.11 / defence 0.82 against FK Jablonec attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 59% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 18%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 60%, FK Jablonec 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.