Karviná 0-3 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Karviná face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and Sparta Praha meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Karviná have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 4L across 8 games at Městský Stadión this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sparta Praha (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Sparta Praha are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Karviná have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Sparta Praha in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Sparta Praha, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Sparta Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 56% versus Sparta Praha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 50% | Sparta Praha 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.12 xG and Sparta Praha 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.857 / defence 1.225 | Sparta Praha attack 1.206 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.202. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Karviná games / 49 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 24% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 53%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Sparta Praha 1.89. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 62% | Sparta Praha 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 24% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Karviná 1.12 / Sparta Praha 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.857 / def 1.225 | Sparta Praha attack 1.206 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Sparta Praha xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Karviná vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Sparta Praha?
Karviná 0 - 3 Sparta Praha.
Where is Karviná vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Sparta Praha part of?
Karviná vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 24% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Karviná and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Sparta Praha?
Record (3 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 0 | Sparta Praha 3W.
What form are Karviná and Sparta Praha in?
Karviná (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Sparta Praha (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Karviná's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.21x) against Karviná's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 18/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
24%
4.17
23%
4.28
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.90
1.77
Sparta Praha xG
4.17
24%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
17%
5.90
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
4%
24.58
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Karviná and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Karviná and 1.77 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Karviná's recent record stands at 4W 3D 11L from 18 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha, meanwhile, have gone 15W 2D 1L across 18 games — 2.61 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sparta Praha by 1.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Karviná heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 3W 1D 4L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Karviná are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sparta Praha's away record stands at 5W 2D 1L across 8 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sparta Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.50 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 4W 3D 11L in their last 18 games (0.83 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 15W 2D 1L in their last 18 (2.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.25 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Karviná or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-3 on 10 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Karviná
0
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Sparta Praha?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Karviná, 75% for Sparta Praha — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karviná) and 50% (Sparta Praha).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Karviná's games and 75% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karviná's recent games and 50% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Karviná 0-3 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.12 xG and Sparta Praha 1.77 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against Sparta Praha attack 1.21 / defence 0.84, drawn from 18/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 24% | Draw 23% | Sparta Praha 53%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 50%, Sparta Praha 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.61 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.