České Budějovice 3-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
České Budějovice host Baník Ostrava at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, České Budějovice have posted 4W 0D 6L at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Baník Ostrava's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of České Budějovice's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, České Budějovice have won 2, Baník Ostrava 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
České Budějovice in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 49% versus Baník Ostrava 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 61% | Baník Ostrava 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.15 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.774 / defence 1.120 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.152 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.202. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 České Budějovice games / 48 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 28% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 47%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Baník Ostrava 2.13. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 50% | Baník Ostrava 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 28% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG České Budějovice 1.15 / Baník Ostrava 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.774 / def 1.120 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.152 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Baník Ostrava xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava?
České Budějovice 3 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 28% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava?
Record (5 meetings): České Budějovice 2W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 3W.
What form are České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.77x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
28%
3.54
25%
3.97
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.70
1.55
Baník Ostrava xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
16.69
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.55 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 14W 7D 30L from 51 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 21L across 51 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: České Budějovice on 0.96 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 10W 2D 13L from 25 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 7W 8D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
České Budějovice are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.51 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 14W 7D 30L in their last 51 games (0.96 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 19W 11D 21L in their last 51 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.28 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Baník Ostrava go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2025, when Baník Ostrava won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
0
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when České Budějovice 0-4 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 44%, Baník Ostrava 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (České Budějovice) and 48% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 64% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of České Budějovice's recent games and 48% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant České Budějovice run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Baník Ostrava 3-0 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.15 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.55 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. České Budějovice beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baník Ostrava landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.77 / defence 1.12 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.15 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 28% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 47%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual České Budějovice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 61%, Baník Ostrava 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 0.96 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.