Teplice 2-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovan Liberec make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Teplice have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Teplice, 1.10 for Slovan Liberec — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 1–5 with Slovan Liberec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Slovan Liberec 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 64% | Slovan Liberec 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.81 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.036 / defence 1.010 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.797 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.332. Data: 45 Teplice games / 45 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 53% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 21%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Slovan Liberec 4.76. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 50% | Slovan Liberec 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 53% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Teplice 1.81 / Slovan Liberec 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.036 / def 1.010 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.797 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Teplice (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Slovan Liberec xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Teplice vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Teplice 2 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Teplice vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 53% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Teplice and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
Record (1 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 0 | Slovan Liberec 1W.
What form are Teplice and Slovan Liberec in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Teplice's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.80x) against Teplice's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.85
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.88
1.07
Slovan Liberec xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
3%
29.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Teplice and 1.07 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Teplice come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 10D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.23 PPG from 47 outings (16W 10D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Teplice against 1.23 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Teplice's home form reads 8W 5D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 1.00 points per game from 24 outings (6W 6D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.04 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 12W 10D 25L in their last 47 games (0.98 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 16W 10D 21L in their last 47 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Teplice's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.21 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 5-1 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Teplice
3
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 5, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Slovan Liberec 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 46%, Slovan Liberec 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Teplice) and 50% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 42% of games; Slovan Liberec in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Teplice's recent matches and 54% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Teplice's recent games and 50% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Slovan Liberec 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Slovan Liberec 2-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.81 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.07 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 53% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 21%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 64%, Slovan Liberec 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 0.98 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.