FK Jablonec 1-2 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav meet at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Mlada Boleslav have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: FK Jablonec 0W, Mlada Boleslav 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Mlada Boleslav goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 49% versus Mlada Boleslav 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 41% | Mlada Boleslav 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.62 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.038 / defence 0.952 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.022 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.332. Data: 45 FK Jablonec games / 45 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 29%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Mlada Boleslav 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 50% | Mlada Boleslav 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG FK Jablonec 1.62 / Mlada Boleslav 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.038 / def 0.952 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.022 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Mlada Boleslav xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
FK Jablonec 1 - 2 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 43% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (3 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 2W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.02x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.64
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.91
1.29
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
6%
17.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.29 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 9W 20D 20L from 49 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 20L across 49 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mlada Boleslav by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 6W 11D 8L from 25 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 9W 4D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.57 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 9W 20D 20L in their last 49 games (0.96 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 19W 10D 20L in their last 49 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Mlada Boleslav's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.16 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 3-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 52%, Mlada Boleslav 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (FK Jablonec) and 60% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FK Jablonec's games and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mlada Boleslav defy the odds to beat FK Jablonec 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat FK Jablonec 1-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.62 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.29 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.04 / defence 0.95 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 29%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 41%, Mlada Boleslav 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.