Slovan Liberec 1-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion u Nisy plays host to Slovan Liberec versus Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 29 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec at Stadion u Nisy this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Pardubice (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Pardubice have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Slovan Liberec, 0.70 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Slovan Liberec lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Pardubice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 46% versus Pardubice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 42% | Pardubice 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 2.19 xG and Pardubice 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.961 / defence 0.842 | Pardubice attack 0.958 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.317. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Slovan Liberec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Slovan Liberec games / 46 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 62% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 16%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Pardubice 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 40% | Pardubice 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 62% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Slovan Liberec 2.19 / Pardubice 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.961 / def 0.842 | Pardubice attack 0.958 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Pardubice xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 62% chance of winning, Pardubice a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Pardubice?
Record (3 meetings): Slovan Liberec 1W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 1W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Pardubice in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Pardubice (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovan Liberec's attack rating (0.96) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.96x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.61
16%
6.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
3.25
1.06
Pardubice xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
6.10
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
11%
8.90
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
2%
54.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.06 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 16W 10D 22L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice's form line: 12W 9D 27L from 48 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 0.94 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (10W 4D 9L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 7W 1D 15L from 23 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.04 scored and 2.10 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 16W 10D 22L in their last 48 games (1.21 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 12W 9D 27L in their last 48 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Pardubice away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.48 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Slovan Liberec go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 0-4 on 22 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Pardubice 0-4 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Pardubice?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 35%, Pardubice 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Slovan Liberec) and 74% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 44% of games; Pardubice in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 61% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 74% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Pardubice tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec and Pardubice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec and Pardubice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 2.19 xG and Pardubice 1.06 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.96 / defence 0.84 against Pardubice attack 0.96 / defence 1.35, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 62% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 16%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 42%, Pardubice 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.21 PPG, Pardubice 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.