Slovan Liberec 2-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Hradec Králové travel to Stadion u Nisy to take on Slovan Liberec. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovan Liberec stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's home record at Stadion u Nisy: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 46% versus Hradec Králové 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 41% | Hradec Králové 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.27 xG and Hradec Králové 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.881 / defence 0.827 | Hradec Králové attack 0.950 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.405. Data: 44 Slovan Liberec games / 44 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 38% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 30%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Hradec Králové 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 40% | Hradec Králové 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 38% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.27 / Hradec Králové 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.881 / def 0.827 | Hradec Králové attack 0.950 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Hradec Králové xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Slovan Liberec 2 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 38% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
38%
2.64
33%
3.06
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.38
1.10
Hradec Králové xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.10 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 10D 21L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.39 PPG from 46 outings (17W 13D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovan Liberec on 1.20 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 9W 4D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.28 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 15W 10D 21L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 17W 13D 16L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Hradec Králové away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.41 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hradec Králové have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 1-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 36%, Hradec Králové 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Slovan Liberec) and 59% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 46% of games; Hradec Králové in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 54% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 59% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Hradec Králové 2-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.27 xG and Hradec Králové 1.10 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.88 / defence 0.83 against Hradec Králové attack 0.95 / defence 0.87, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 38% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 30%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 41%, Hradec Králové 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.20 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.