Pardubice 1-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Plzen at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Pardubice have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Pardubice are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Plzen — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Plzen — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Pardubice's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Plzen winning.
It is worth noting that Plzen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Plzen in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 54% versus Plzen 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 62% | Plzen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.67 xG and Plzen 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.615 / defence 1.155 | Plzen attack 1.259 / defence 0.634. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.317. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.615 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plzen's defence strength of 0.634 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Pardubice games / 45 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 11% | Draw 23% | Plzen 66%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 9.09 | Draw 4.35 | Plzen 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 30% | Plzen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 11% | Draw 23% | Plzen 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 43% | xG Pardubice 0.67 / Plzen 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.615 / def 1.155 | Plzen attack 1.259 / def 0.634 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Plzen (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Plzen xG
43%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Plzen kick off?
Pardubice vs Plzen kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Plzen?
Pardubice 1 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Pardubice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Plzen part of?
Pardubice vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 11% chance of winning, Plzen a 66% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pardubice and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Plzen?
Record (3 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 0 | Plzen 3W.
What form are Pardubice and Plzen in?
Pardubice (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (0.61) and Plzen's defence rating (0.63), the model arrives at 0.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
11%
8.79
23%
4.43
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.8%
Away win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.59
1.92
Plzen xG
8.79
11%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
15%
6.79
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
2%
59.64
34%
2.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.92 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Plzen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Pardubice have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 12W 10D 28L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 38W 9D 3L from 50 games, 2.46 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.00 PPG from 24 outings (5W 9D 10L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 15W 7D 2L from 24 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.92 scored and 0.60 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Plzen in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 12W 10D 28L in their last 50 games (0.92 PPG), while Plzen have gone 38W 9D 3L in their last 50 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.00 PPG; Plzen away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Plzen in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2022, when Plzen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pardubice
2
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 1, Plzen have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Plzen 0-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 42%, Plzen 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Pardubice) and 38% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Plzen in 50%; Pardubice have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Pardubice's recent matches and 42% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Pardubice's recent games and 38% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Plzen tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Plzen in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and Plzen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice and Plzen finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.67 xG and Plzen 1.92 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Plzen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.61 / defence 1.16 against Plzen attack 1.26 / defence 0.63, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 11% | Draw 23% | Plzen 66%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 62%, Plzen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.