Zbrojovka Brno 2-3 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zbrojovka Brno vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Sigma Olomouc travel to ADAX INVEST Arena to take on Zbrojovka Brno. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zbrojovka Brno — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno at ADAX INVEST Arena this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 home games — 1.14 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sigma Olomouc are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Zbrojovka Brno, 0 for Sigma Olomouc and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Zbrojovka Brno winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zbrojovka Brno trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zbrojovka Brno 67% versus Sigma Olomouc 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zbrojovka Brno 93% | Sigma Olomouc 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.16 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.882 / defence 1.343 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.931 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.317. Sigma Olomouc's defence strength of 0.763 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 15 Zbrojovka Brno games / 45 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 26% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 48%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 2.08. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Zbrojovka Brno 57% | Sigma Olomouc 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: ADAX INVEST Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 26% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.16 / Sigma Olomouc 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.882 / def 1.343 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.931 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Sigma Olomouc xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What was the final score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Sigma Olomouc?
Zbrojovka Brno 2 - 3 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Zbrojovka Brno vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 26% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (1 meetings): Zbrojovka Brno 1W | Draws 0 | Sigma Olomouc 0W.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Sigma Olomouc in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zbrojovka Brno's attack at 0.88x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Zbrojovka Brno's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
26%
3.87
26%
3.78
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
2.81
1.65
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
5%
20.11
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.65 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zbrojovka Brno come into this having played 15 games, going 6W 2D 7L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zbrojovka Brno on 1.33 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zbrojovka Brno's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.47 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zbrojovka Brno have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 6W 2D 7L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Zbrojovka Brno's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 1.14 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Zbrojovka Brno or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zbrojovka Brno have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zbrojovka Brno and Sigma Olomouc runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Zbrojovka Brno
0
Draws
1
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Sigma Olomouc?
From 2 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 13 November 2022, when Zbrojovka Brno 2-3 Sigma Olomouc.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zbrojovka Brno 57%, Sigma Olomouc 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Zbrojovka Brno and 29% for Sigma Olomouc. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zbrojovka Brno have failed to score in 29% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Zbrojovka Brno's recent matches and 43% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Zbrojovka Brno's matches and 29% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Zbrojovka Brno 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Zbrojovka Brno 2-3 at ADAX INVEST Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zbrojovka Brno 1.16 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.65 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Zbrojovka Brno beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.88 / defence 1.34 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.93 / defence 0.76, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zbrojovka Brno 26% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 48%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zbrojovka Brno 93%, Sigma Olomouc 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zbrojovka Brno 1.33 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.