Teplice 2-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Teplice face Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Wednesday 21 February 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
Teplice (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Teplice's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Teplice, 1.10 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Teplice edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Teplice 1–2 Sigma Olomouc — a Sigma Olomouc win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 62% versus Sigma Olomouc 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 54% | Sigma Olomouc 54%). Note also that Sigma Olomouc surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Teplice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.19 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.818 / defence 0.811 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.913 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.264. Data: built from Teplice's last 50 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 50.
Result probabilities: Teplice 41% | Draw 31% | Sigma Olomouc 28%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.46 | Draw 3.19 | Sigma Olomouc 3.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Teplice's last 10 home games and Sigma Olomouc's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 40% (last 10 home games) | Sigma Olomouc 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 18 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 February 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 41% | Draw 31% | Sigma Olomouc 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Teplice 1.19 / Sigma Olomouc 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.818 / def 0.811 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.913 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Teplice (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sigma Olomouc xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Wednesday 21 February 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice 2 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 18) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 41% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Teplice and Sigma Olomouc will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.82) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.91x) against Teplice's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 50 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.19
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.12
0.94
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Teplice and 0.94 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Teplice's recent record stands at 17W 15D 23L from 55 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 18L across 55 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Teplice against 1.40 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 10W 11D 6L from their last 27 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 10W 9D 8L across their last 27 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.47 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Teplice (Home) vs Sigma Olomouc (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 17W 15D 23L in their last 55 games (1.20 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 17D 18L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Teplice's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.52 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
3
Draws
3
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 4, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Teplice 1-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 56%, Sigma Olomouc 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Teplice) and 44% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Sigma Olomouc matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Teplice's recent matches and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Teplice's recent games and 44% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Sigma Olomouc matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Teplice's recent matches and 82% of Sigma Olomouc's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Sigma Olomouc 2-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.19 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.94 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sigma Olomouc landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.82 / defence 0.81 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 41% | Draw 31% | Sigma Olomouc 28%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 54%, Sigma Olomouc 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.20 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.