Sigma Olomouc 0-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Hradec Králové travel to Andrův stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andrův stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andrův stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sigma Olomouc 1.00 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 1 for Hradec Králové and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 57% versus Hradec Králové 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 56% | Hradec Králové 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.57 xG and Hradec Králové 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.956 / defence 1.103 | Hradec Králové attack 0.795 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.225. Data: 49 Sigma Olomouc games / 50 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 49% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 26%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 3.85. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Hradec Králové 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 49% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.57 / Hradec Králové 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.956 / def 1.103 | Hradec Králové attack 0.795 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Hradec Králové xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Sigma Olomouc 0 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 49% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
Record (3 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.96x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
49%
2.05
25%
3.95
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.64
1.07
Hradec Králové xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
5%
18.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.07 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 20W 16D 18L from 54 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 24L across 54 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.41 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 10W 7D 10L from 27 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 8W 7D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.15 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 16D 18L in their last 54 games (1.41 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 18W 12D 24L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Hradec Králové away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.37 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
5
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Hradec Králové have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 63%, Hradec Králové 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sigma Olomouc) and 48% (Hradec Králové). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 48% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 48% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sigma Olomouc's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové finished level at 0-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.57 xG and Hradec Králové 1.07 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Hradec Králové attack 0.80 / defence 1.06, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 49% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 26%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 56%, Hradec Králové 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.41 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.