Karviná 0-3 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and Pardubice meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 14 February 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná at Městský Stadión this season: 3W 1D 5L from 9 home games — 1.11 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pardubice have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Karviná against 1.20 for Pardubice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Karviná lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Pardubice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 53% versus Pardubice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 53% | Pardubice 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.16 xG and Pardubice 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.742 / defence 1.350 | Pardubice attack 1.022 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.226. Karviná's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Karviná games / 49 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 26% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 50%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Pardubice 2.00. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Karviná 56% | Pardubice 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 26% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Karviná 1.16 / Pardubice 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.742 / def 1.350 | Pardubice attack 1.022 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Pardubice xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Pardubice kick off?
Karviná vs Pardubice kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 14 February 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Pardubice?
Karviná 0 - 3 Pardubice.
Where is Karviná vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Pardubice part of?
Karviná vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 26% chance of winning, Pardubice a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Karviná and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Pardubice?
Record (2 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 0 | Pardubice 2W.
What form are Karviná and Pardubice in?
Karviná (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Pardubice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Karviná's attack rating (0.74) and Pardubice's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (1.02x) against Karviná's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
26%
3.83
24%
4.16
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.85
1.69
Pardubice xG
3.83
26%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
5%
20.80
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Karviná and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Karviná and 1.69 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Karviná come into this having played 19 games, going 4W 3D 12L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 1.00 PPG from 19 outings (5W 4D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.79 PPG for Karviná against 1.00 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Karviná's home form reads 3W 1D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 1.11 points per game from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.89 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 4W 3D 12L in their last 19 games (0.79 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Pardubice away?
Karviná's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.11 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pardubice won 4-0 on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Karviná
0
Draws
7
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Pardubice have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Pardubice 1-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 56%, Pardubice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Karviná) and 44% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Karviná have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Karviná's games and 56% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Karviná's recent games and 44% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Pardubice tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pardubice run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Karviná 0-3 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.16 xG and Pardubice 1.69 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Pardubice outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.74 / defence 1.35 against Pardubice attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 26% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 50%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 53%, Pardubice 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pardubice's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 0.79 PPG, Pardubice 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.