Teplice 2-2 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Karviná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Karviná have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Teplice's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Teplice 2W, Karviná 0W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games).
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 48% versus Karviná 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 33% | Karviná 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.44 xG and Karviná 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.883 / defence 0.731 | Karviná attack 0.729 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.250. Teplice's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Teplice games / 21 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 55% | Draw 29% | Karviná 16%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.82 | Draw 3.45 | Karviná 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 30% | Karviná 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 55% | Draw 29% | Karviná 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 38% | xG Teplice 1.44 / Karviná 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.883 / def 0.731 | Karviná attack 0.729 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Teplice (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Karviná xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Karviná kick off?
Teplice vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Karviná?
Teplice 2 - 2 Karviná.
Where is Teplice vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Karviná part of?
Teplice vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 55% chance of winning, Karviná a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Teplice and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Karviná?
Record (4 meetings): Teplice 2W | Draws 2 | Karviná 0W.
What form are Teplice and Karviná in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Karviná (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.88) and Karviná's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.73x) against Teplice's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
55%
1.82
29%
3.49
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.10
0.67
Karviná xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
4%
25.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Teplice and 0.67 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Karviná?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 7W 6D 8L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karviná's form line: 4W 3D 14L from 21 games, 0.71 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Teplice are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Karviná.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (4W 4D 2L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 0.95 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Karviná in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 7W 6D 8L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Karviná have gone 4W 3D 14L in their last 21 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Karviná away?
Teplice's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.60 PPG; Karviná away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Teplice or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Karviná in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won 4-1 on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Teplice
4
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Karviná?
From 9 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Karviná have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Teplice 2-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Karviná?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 30%, Karviná 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Teplice and 50% for Karviná.
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 40% of games; Karviná in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Teplice's recent matches and 50% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Teplice's recent games and 50% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Karviná tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Karviná in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Karviná share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice and Karviná finished level at 2-2 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.44 xG and Karviná 0.67 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 0.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.88 / defence 0.73 against Karviná attack 0.73 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 55% | Draw 29% | Karviná 16%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 33%, Karviná 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Karviná's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Teplice arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.