České Budějovice 2-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
České Budějovice (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for České Budějovice, 0.80 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: České Budějovice 1W, Sigma Olomouc 3W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 49% versus Sigma Olomouc 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 62% | Sigma Olomouc 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.49 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.964 / defence 0.937 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.808 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.254. Data: 51 České Budějovice games / 51 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 48% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 23%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Sigma Olomouc 4.35. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 40% | Sigma Olomouc 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 48% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG České Budějovice 1.49 / Sigma Olomouc 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.964 / def 0.937 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.808 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sigma Olomouc xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
České Budějovice 2 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 48% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (5 meetings): České Budějovice 1W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 3W.
What form are České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
České Budějovice's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.81x) against České Budějovice's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
48%
2.08
29%
3.40
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.44
0.95
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
5%
19.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for České Budějovice and 0.95 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
České Budějovice come into this having played 53 games, going 15W 7D 31L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.40 PPG from 53 outings (19W 17D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
České Budějovice's home form reads 11W 2D 13L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.38 points per game from 26 outings (9W 9D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.47 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 15W 7D 31L in their last 53 games (0.98 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 19W 17D 17L in their last 53 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.35 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sigma Olomouc go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 0-3 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
České Budějovice
1
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Sigma Olomouc 3-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 42%, Sigma Olomouc 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (České Budějovice) and 42% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 54% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of České Budějovice's recent games and 42% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as České Budějovice edge out Sigma Olomouc 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.49 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.95 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 48% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 23%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 62%, Sigma Olomouc 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with České Budějovice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.