Teplice 0-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Plzen travel to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to take on Teplice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Czech Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen away from home this season: 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Plzen — 2.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 60% and Plzen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 60% | Plzen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.82 xG and Plzen 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.693 / defence 1.063 | Plzen attack 0.735 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.344. Teplice's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Teplice games / 10 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 28% | Draw 32% | Plzen 40%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Plzen 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Plzen 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 28% | Draw 32% | Plzen 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Teplice 0.82 / Plzen 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.693 / def 1.063 | Plzen attack 0.735 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Plzen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Plzen xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Plzen kick off?
Teplice vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Plzen?
Teplice 0 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Teplice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Plzen part of?
Teplice vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 28% chance of winning, Plzen a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Teplice and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Plzen in?
Teplice (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Plzen (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.69x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
28%
3.58
32%
3.14
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Teplice xG
Total xG
1.87
1.05
Plzen xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
18%
5.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 16.2 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Teplice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Teplice and 1.05 for Plzen, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Teplice have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 2D 7L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games, 2.70 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 2.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Teplice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plzen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.70 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Plzen in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Plzen in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 games (0.50 PPG), while Plzen have gone 9W 0D 1L in their last 10 (2.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.00 PPG; Plzen away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Teplice or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Plzen in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Plzen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Teplice
4
Draws
5
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 1, Plzen have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Plzen 2-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Plzen tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 50%, Plzen 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Teplice) and 25% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Plzen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Teplice's recent matches and 25% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Teplice's recent games and 25% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Plzen tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Plzen in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.82 xG and Plzen 1.05 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.69 / defence 1.06 against Plzen attack 0.73 / defence 0.87, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 28% | Draw 32% | Plzen 40%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 60%, Plzen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.