Sigma Olomouc 2-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Karviná make the trip to Andrův stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 3W 4D 2L across 9 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.44 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 2.22 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 0L across 4 games at Andrův stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.75 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.44 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andrův stadion than their overall form suggests.
Karviná have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná away from home this season: 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.04 in Sigma Olomouc's favour (1.44 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Karviná — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 67% and Karviná 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 67% | Karviná 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 2.18 xG and Karviná 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.203 / defence 1.189 | Karviná attack 0.647 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.344. Karviná bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Sigma Olomouc games / 10 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 64% | Draw 20% | Karviná 17%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Karviná 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sigma Olomouc (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 75% | Karviná 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 64% | Draw 20% | Karviná 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG Sigma Olomouc 2.18 / Karviná 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.203 / def 1.189 | Karviná attack 0.647 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Karviná xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 0 Karviná.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 64% chance of winning, Karviná a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Karviná?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Karviná in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-4D-2L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 2.22 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Karviná (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.20x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.65x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
64%
1.57
20%
5.09
17%
5.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.22
1.03
Karviná xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
5.93
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
11%
8.87
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
2%
52.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.03 for Karviná, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 4D 2L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 0.33 PPG from 9 outings (0W 3D 6L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Sigma Olomouc are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.00 points per game from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 0.89 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Karviná in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Karviná have gone 0W 3D 6L in their last 9 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Karviná away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 2.00 PPG; Karviná away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sigma Olomouc have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 4-0 on 23 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 6, Karviná have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 4-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Karviná?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 75%, Karviná 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Sigma Olomouc) and 25% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Karviná in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 25% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 25% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Karviná tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Karviná in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Karviná 2-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 2.18 xG and Karviná 1.03 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Karviná landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.20 / defence 1.19 against Karviná attack 0.65 / defence 1.33, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 64% | Draw 20% | Karviná 17%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 67%, Karviná 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Karviná's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.33. Form held, and they took the win. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.