Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Plzen welcome FK Jablonec to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen at Doosan Aréna this season: 6W 0D 0L from 6 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, FK Jablonec have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Plzen are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.90 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 36% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 54% versus FK Jablonec 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 54% | FK Jablonec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.06 xG and FK Jablonec 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.151 / defence 1.013 | FK Jablonec attack 0.710 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.321. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Plzen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Plzen games / 11 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 63% | Draw 20% | FK Jablonec 17%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | FK Jablonec 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 83% | FK Jablonec 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 63% | Draw 20% | FK Jablonec 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Plzen 2.06 / FK Jablonec 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.151 / def 1.013 | FK Jablonec attack 0.710 / def 1.349 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Plzen (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.95
FK Jablonec xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Plzen 5 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Plzen vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs FK Jablonec part of?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 63% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Plzen and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in?
Plzen (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plzen's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
63%
1.59
20%
4.89
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.01
0.95
FK Jablonec xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
13%
7.84
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
2%
47.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Plzen and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Plzen and 0.95 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen's recent record stands at 10W 0D 1L from 11 games, a 2.73 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 4L across 11 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 1.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FK Jablonec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.91 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 10W 0D 1L in their last 11 games (2.73 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or FK Jablonec away?
Plzen's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 3.00 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Plzen or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 80%, FK Jablonec 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Plzen and 60% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play FK Jablonec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Plzen's games and 40% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Plzen's matches and 60% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Plzen and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 5-0 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat FK Jablonec 5-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.06 xG and FK Jablonec 0.95 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.15 / defence 1.01 against FK Jablonec attack 0.71 / defence 1.35, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 63% | Draw 20% | FK Jablonec 17%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.73 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.