Slovácko 3-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Slovácko welcome Teplice to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have gone 6W 1D 2L from 9 outings — a 2.11 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.78 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 0L across 4 games at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this term (3.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.11 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 1W 2D 6L from 9 Czech Liga matches — 0.56 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 1.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Teplice have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Slovácko have the edge — a 1.55 PPG advantage (2.11 vs 0.56) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 56% versus Teplice 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 56% | Teplice 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.92 xG and Teplice 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.985 / defence 0.825 | Teplice attack 0.631 / defence 1.445. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.338. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.445 — this is suppressing Slovácko's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Slovácko games / 9 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 66% | Draw 21% | Teplice 13%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Teplice 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Slovácko (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 25% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 66% | Draw 21% | Teplice 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 43% | xG Slovácko 1.92 / Teplice 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.985 / def 0.825 | Teplice attack 0.631 / def 1.445 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Teplice xG
43%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Teplice kick off?
Slovácko vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Teplice?
Slovácko 3 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Slovácko vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Teplice part of?
Slovácko vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 66% chance of winning, Teplice a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Slovácko and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovácko and Teplice in?
Slovácko (all comps): 6W-1D-2L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Teplice (all comps): 1W-2D-6L in 9 | 0.56 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.89 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.98) and Teplice's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
66%
1.51
21%
4.79
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.61
0.70
Teplice xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
33%
3.02
2%
53.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.70 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko's recent record stands at 6W 1D 2L from 9 games, a 2.11 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 6L across 9 games — 0.56 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slovácko by 1.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Teplice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.11 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Teplice's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 0.78 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 6W 1D 2L in their last 9 games (2.11 PPG), while Teplice have gone 1W 2D 6L in their last 9 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Teplice away?
Slovácko's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 3.00 PPG; Teplice away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Teplice in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovácko's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovácko
2
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 4, Teplice have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Teplice 1-1 Slovácko.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 25%, Teplice 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Slovácko and 75% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Slovácko's recent matches and 75% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Slovácko's matches and 75% of Teplice's.
Do Slovácko and Teplice tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Teplice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Teplice 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Teplice 3-2 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.92 xG and Teplice 0.70 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.98 / defence 0.82 against Teplice attack 0.63 / defence 1.45, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 66% | Draw 21% | Teplice 13%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 56%, Teplice 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.56. That form edge translated into the three points. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.