FK Jablonec 2-2 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
České Budějovice make the trip to Stadion Střelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's home record at Stadion Střelnice: 2W 2D 1L from 5 Czech Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
České Budějovice have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.30 for České Budějovice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 40% versus České Budějovice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 40% | České Budějovice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.14 xG and České Budějovice 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.731 / defence 0.966 | České Budějovice attack 0.812 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.329. FK Jablonec's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 FK Jablonec games / 10 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 38% | Draw 29% | České Budějovice 33%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | České Budějovice 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | České Budějovice 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 38% | Draw 29% | České Budějovice 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG FK Jablonec 1.14 / České Budějovice 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.731 / def 0.966 | České Budějovice attack 0.812 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.04
České Budějovice xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice kick off?
FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice?
FK Jablonec 2 - 2 České Budějovice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice part of?
FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 38% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FK Jablonec and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and České Budějovice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and České Budějovice in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. České Budějovice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (0.73) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.81x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
38%
2.65
29%
3.42
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.18
1.04
České Budějovice xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.04 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, FK Jablonec have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 4D 4L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
České Budějovice's form line: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.30 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FK Jablonec have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or České Budějovice away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.25 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FK Jablonec have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 4 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
3
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and České Budějovice?
From 9 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 4, České Budějovice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when České Budějovice 2-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and České Budějovice?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
České Budějovice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 50%, České Budějovice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (FK Jablonec) and 50% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: České Budějovice in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 50% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 50% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and České Budějovice tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and České Budějovice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec and České Budějovice finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.14 xG and České Budějovice 1.04 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. České Budějovice outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.73 / defence 0.97 against České Budějovice attack 0.81 / defence 1.17, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 38% | Draw 29% | České Budějovice 33%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 40%, České Budějovice 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.00 PPG, České Budějovice 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.