Mlada Boleslav 4-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians 1905 make the trip to Lokotrans Aréna to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's home record at Lokotrans Aréna: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1W 2D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.20 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bohemians 1905 in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 70% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mlada Boleslav 60% and Bohemians 1905 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Mlada Boleslav 60% | Bohemians 1905 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 2.31 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.217 / defence 1.543 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.888 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.329. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.423 — this is suppressing Mlada Boleslav's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Mlada Boleslav games / 10 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 49% | Draw 20% | Bohemians 1905 31%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.04 | Draw 5.00 | Bohemians 1905 3.23. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.13. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.13 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 49% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.13 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 60% | Bohemians 1905 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 49% | Draw 20% | Bohemians 1905 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 75% | xG Mlada Boleslav 2.31 / Bohemians 1905 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.217 / def 1.543 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.888 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Bohemians 1905 xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Mlada Boleslav 4 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 49% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 31% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.22) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.89x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.54x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
49%
2.03
20%
5.04
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
4.13
1.82
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.03
49%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.32
25%
BTTS No
4.08
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
10%
10.07
Win to Nil
8%
12.51
3%
32.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.82 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 4.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 2D 5L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.20 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.60 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Bohemians 1905 in 80%.
Last 10 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.40 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mlada Boleslav
5
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Mlada Boleslav, 80% for Bohemians 1905 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Mlada Boleslav and 80% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 80% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 80% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Bohemians 1905 4-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 2.31 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.82 xG, a combined 4.13. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.22 / defence 1.54 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.89 / defence 1.42, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 49% | Draw 20% | Bohemians 1905 31%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 60%, Bohemians 1905 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.10 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.