Slovan Liberec 3-3 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion u Nisy plays host to Slovan Liberec versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadion u Nisy — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FK Jablonec (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Slovan Liberec, 0 for FK Jablonec and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slovan Liberec 60% and FK Jablonec 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 56% | FK Jablonec 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 2.21 xG and FK Jablonec 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.216 / defence 0.959 | FK Jablonec attack 1.034 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.250. Data: 51 Slovan Liberec games / 51 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 59% | Draw 21% | FK Jablonec 20%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | FK Jablonec 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 40% | FK Jablonec 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 59% | Draw 21% | FK Jablonec 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Slovan Liberec 2.21 / FK Jablonec 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.216 / def 0.959 | FK Jablonec attack 1.034 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.24
FK Jablonec xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Slovan Liberec 3 - 3 FK Jablonec.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec part of?
Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 59% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec?
Record (4 meetings): Slovan Liberec 1W | Draws 3 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 1.22x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.03x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
59%
1.70
21%
4.71
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
3.45
1.24
FK Jablonec xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
11%
9.10
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
2%
45.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.24 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 55 games, going 19W 15D 21L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.15 PPG from 55 outings (15W 18D 22L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.15 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 13W 6D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.79 points per game from 28 outings (5W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.36 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovan Liberec have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FK Jablonec in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 19W 15D 21L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 15W 18D 22L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or FK Jablonec away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.61 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 0-5 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovan Liberec
5
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 57%, FK Jablonec 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Slovan Liberec) and 61% (FK Jablonec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play FK Jablonec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Slovan Liberec's games and 61% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Slovan Liberec's matches and 61% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 22, as Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec drew 3-3 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 2.21 xG and FK Jablonec 1.24 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FK Jablonec outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.22 / defence 0.96 against FK Jablonec attack 1.03 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 59% | Draw 21% | FK Jablonec 20%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 56%, FK Jablonec 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.31 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.