Baník Ostrava 1-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Baník Ostrava welcome Bohemians 1905 to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Baník Ostrava) versus 1.00 (Bohemians 1905). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Baník Ostrava: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Bohemians 1905, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Baník Ostrava and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 57% versus Bohemians 1905 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 57% | Bohemians 1905 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.53 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.880 / defence 0.903 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.001 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.250. Data: 51 Baník Ostrava games / 51 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 27%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Bohemians 1905 3.70. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Baník Ostrava 30% | Bohemians 1905 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.53 / Bohemians 1905 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.880 / def 0.903 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.001 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Bohemians 1905 xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 46% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
Record (5 meetings): Baník Ostrava 3W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.69
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.66
1.13
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
6%
16.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.13 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Baník Ostrava have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 20W 12D 24L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 21W 13D 22L from 56 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.29 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Baník Ostrava have posted 1.39 PPG from 28 outings (12W 3D 13L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 4D 12L from 28 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.30 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 21W 13D 22L in their last 56 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.39 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians 1905 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baník Ostrava
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 50%, Bohemians 1905 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Baník Ostrava) and 57% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 57% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 finished level at 1-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.53 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.13 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.00 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 27%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 57%, Bohemians 1905 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.29 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.