Teplice 2-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovan Liberec make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Teplice have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Teplice, 1.60 for Slovan Liberec — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 61% and Slovan Liberec 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 54% | Slovan Liberec 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.48 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.911 / defence 0.849 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.824 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.301. Data: 52 Teplice games / 52 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 49% | Draw 30% | Slovan Liberec 21%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Slovan Liberec 4.76. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 40% | Slovan Liberec 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 49% | Draw 30% | Slovan Liberec 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Teplice 1.48 / Slovan Liberec 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.911 / def 0.849 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.824 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Teplice (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Slovan Liberec xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Teplice vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Teplice 2 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Teplice vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 49% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Teplice and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
Record (2 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 1 | Slovan Liberec 0W.
What form are Teplice and Slovan Liberec in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Teplice's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Slovan Liberec's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.82x) against Teplice's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
49%
2.06
30%
3.34
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.39
0.91
Slovan Liberec xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
5%
20.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Teplice and 0.91 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Teplice come into this having played 56 games, going 18W 15D 23L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.30 PPG from 56 outings (19W 16D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Teplice against 1.30 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Teplice's home form reads 11W 11D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 1.00 points per game from 27 outings (6W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.52 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Slovan Liberec in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 18W 15D 23L in their last 56 games (1.23 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 19W 16D 21L in their last 56 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Teplice's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.63 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 3-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Teplice
3
Draws
1
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 6, Slovan Liberec have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Slovan Liberec 0-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Slovan Liberec?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 56%, Slovan Liberec 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Teplice) and 56% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 26% of games; Slovan Liberec in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Teplice's games and 63% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Teplice's recent games and 56% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slovan Liberec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Slovan Liberec 2-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.48 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.91 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.91 / defence 0.85 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.82 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 49% | Draw 30% | Slovan Liberec 21%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 54%, Slovan Liberec 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.23 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.