Teplice 2-3 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Baník Ostrava (39%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Teplice face Baník Ostrava.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Baník Ostrava at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 21 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Teplice — last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Teplice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Baník Ostrava have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Baník Ostrava away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Baník Ostrava — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Teplice's games and 60% of Baník Ostrava's (from Teplice's last 10 home games and Baník Ostrava's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Baník Ostrava have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Teplice.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Mar 2024, ended Teplice 1–4 Baník Ostrava — a Baník Ostrava win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Baník Ostrava have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 54% versus Baník Ostrava 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 49% | Baník Ostrava 46%). Note also that Baník Ostrava surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Teplice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.28 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.919 / defence 1.386 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.958 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.040. Teplice's defence rating of 1.386 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Baník Ostrava's projected output up. Data: built from Teplice's last 37 games and Baník Ostrava's last 37.
Result probabilities: Teplice 34% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 39%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.93 | Draw 3.66 | Baník Ostrava 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Teplice's last 10 home games and Baník Ostrava's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 60% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 9 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 34% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Teplice 1.28 / Baník Ostrava 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.919 / def 1.386 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.958 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Baník Ostrava xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 21 September 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Teplice 2 - 3 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 9) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 34% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Teplice and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Teplice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.92x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 37 games and Baník Ostrava's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
34%
2.93
27%
3.66
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.67
1.38
Baník Ostrava xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.66
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Teplice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Teplice and 1.38 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 12W 9D 20L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 17W 9D 15L from 41 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.10 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 21 home games (7W 7D 7L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 8W 4D 9L from their last 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Teplice are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.51 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
Teplice (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Teplice vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 12W 9D 20L in their last 41 games (1.10 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 17W 9D 15L in their last 41 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Teplice's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.33 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Teplice or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Teplice have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won Teplice 0-5 Baník Ostrava.
Teplice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Teplice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 48%, Baník Ostrava 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Teplice) and 57% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 29% of games; Baník Ostrava in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Baník Ostrava matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Teplice's recent matches and 52% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Teplice's recent games and 57% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Teplice's recent matches and 62% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Teplice 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Teplice 2-3 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.28 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.38 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.92 / defence 1.39 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 34% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 39%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 49%, Baník Ostrava 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.10 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.