Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Plzen travel to Fortuna Arena to take on Slavia Praha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Fortuna Arena, Slavia Praha have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Slavia Praha are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Slavia Praha, 2 for Plzen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2024, ended 3–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
Plzen trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 43% versus Plzen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 55% | Plzen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.34 xG and Plzen 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.289 / defence 0.760 | Plzen attack 1.244 / defence 0.750. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.043. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 1.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Plzen's defence strength of 0.750 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 0.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Slavia Praha games / 37 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 45% | Draw 28% | Plzen 27%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Plzen 3.70. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 30% | Plzen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 45% | Draw 28% | Plzen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Slavia Praha 1.34 / Plzen 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.289 / def 0.760 | Plzen attack 1.244 / def 0.750 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Plzen xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Plzen kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Slavia Praha 3 - 0 Plzen.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Plzen part of?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 45% chance of winning, Plzen a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Slavia Praha and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
Record (4 meetings): Slavia Praha 2W | Draws 0 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Plzen (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slavia Praha's attack at 1.29x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.63
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.33
0.98
Plzen xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.98 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.48 PPG on a 32W 8D 2L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen's form line: 26W 9D 7L from 42 games, 2.07 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Plzen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.67 PPG from 21 outings (18W 2D 1L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 11W 6D 4L from 21 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.17 scored and 1.02 conceded. Plzen's attacking output running into Slavia Praha's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 32W 8D 2L in their last 42 games (2.48 PPG), while Plzen have gone 26W 9D 7L in their last 42 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Plzen away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.67 PPG; Plzen away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Plzen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
2
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 7, Plzen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slavia Praha see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 43%, Plzen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Slavia Praha and 57% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 62% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Slavia Praha's matches and 57% of Plzen's.
Do Slavia Praha and Plzen tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Plzen in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Plzen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Plzen 3-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.34 xG and Plzen 0.98 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.29 / defence 0.76 against Plzen attack 1.24 / defence 0.75, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 45% | Draw 28% | Plzen 27%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 55%, Plzen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plzen's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 2.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.