České Budějovice 0-2 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as České Budějovice face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Sparta Praha meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
České Budějovice (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
České Budějovice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 9W 0D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sparta Praha arrive in superior form — a 2.10 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sparta Praha in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Sparta Praha, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Sparta Praha winning.
It is worth noting that Sparta Praha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 55% versus Sparta Praha 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 64% | Sparta Praha 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 0.80 xG and Sparta Praha 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.712 / defence 1.287 | Sparta Praha attack 1.503 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.043. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sparta Praha's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.503 — the away xG of 2.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 České Budějovice games / 37 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 14% | Draw 20% | Sparta Praha 66%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 7.14 | Draw 5.00 | Sparta Praha 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: České Budějovice 60% | Sparta Praha 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 14% | Draw 20% | Sparta Praha 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 48% | xG České Budějovice 0.80 / Sparta Praha 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.712 / def 1.287 | Sparta Praha attack 1.503 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Sparta Praha xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha kick off?
České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha?
České Budějovice 0 - 2 Sparta Praha.
Where is České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha part of?
České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 14% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 66% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both České Budějovice and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Sparta Praha?
Record (6 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 5W.
What form are České Budějovice and Sparta Praha in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.71x the league average against Sparta Praha's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.50x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.02.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
14%
7.21
20%
4.94
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.82
2.02
Sparta Praha xG
7.21
14%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
13%
7.54
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
2%
54.35
30%
3.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for České Budějovice and 2.02 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 8W 10D 24L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Praha's form line: 33W 7D 2L from 42 games, 2.52 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 0.81 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 17W 2D 2L from 21 away games — 2.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.33 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 8W 10D 24L in their last 42 games (0.81 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 33W 7D 2L in their last 42 (2.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.33 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.52 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Praha have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 4-0 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
1
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Sparta Praha?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sparta Praha 2-1 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 52%, Sparta Praha 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for České Budějovice and 67% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 33%; České Budějovice have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of České Budějovice's games and 62% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of České Budějovice's matches and 67% of Sparta Praha's.
Do České Budějovice and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat České Budějovice 0-2 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 0.80 xG and Sparta Praha 2.02 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.71 / defence 1.29 against Sparta Praha attack 1.50 / defence 0.79, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 14% | Draw 20% | Sparta Praha 66%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 64%, Sparta Praha 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.