Pardubice 0-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Teplice meet at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CFIG Arena, Pardubice have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Pardubice's 1.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Teplice's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Pardubice, 2 for Teplice and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Teplice — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 48% versus Teplice 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 45% | Teplice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.19 xG and Teplice 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.798 / defence 1.015 | Teplice attack 0.921 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.147. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Pardubice games / 38 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 39% | Draw 29% | Teplice 33%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Teplice 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pardubice as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 50% | Teplice 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 39% | Draw 29% | Teplice 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Pardubice 1.19 / Teplice 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.798 / def 1.015 | Teplice attack 0.921 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Teplice xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Teplice kick off?
Pardubice vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Teplice?
Pardubice 0 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Pardubice vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Teplice part of?
Pardubice vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 39% chance of winning, Teplice a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pardubice and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Teplice?
Record (5 meetings): Pardubice 2W | Draws 1 | Teplice 2W.
What form are Pardubice and Teplice in?
Pardubice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Teplice (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.80x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.92x) against Pardubice's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
39%
2.58
29%
3.50
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.27
1.07
Teplice xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.07 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice's recent record stands at 13W 8D 21L from 42 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 21L across 42 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Pardubice against 1.07 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 6W 5D 9L from 20 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 5W 2D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.05 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Teplice in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 13W 8D 21L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Teplice have gone 12W 9D 21L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Teplice away?
Pardubice's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.15 PPG; Teplice away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 5-1 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Teplice have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pardubice 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 50%, Teplice 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Pardubice) and 65% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 35% of games; Teplice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Pardubice's games and 60% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Pardubice's recent games and 65% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Teplice tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Teplice in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Pardubice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Pardubice 0-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.19 xG and Teplice 1.07 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.80 / defence 1.01 against Teplice attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 39% | Draw 29% | Teplice 33%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 45%, Teplice 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Teplice's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.12 PPG, Teplice 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.