Baník Ostrava 2-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees České Budějovice travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Baník Ostrava are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Baník Ostrava, 3 for České Budějovice and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 0–3 with České Budějovice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Baník Ostrava trading profile (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
České Budějovice trading profile (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 49% versus České Budějovice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 49% | České Budějovice 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 2.19 xG and České Budějovice 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.023 / defence 0.763 | České Budějovice attack 0.707 / defence 1.501. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.134. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.501 — this is suppressing Baník Ostrava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Baník Ostrava's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Baník Ostrava games / 38 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 74% | Draw 17% | České Budějovice 9%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 1.35 | Draw 5.88 | České Budějovice 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Baník Ostrava 50% | České Budějovice 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 74% | Draw 17% | České Budějovice 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 41% | xG Baník Ostrava 2.19 / České Budějovice 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.023 / def 0.763 | České Budějovice attack 0.707 / def 1.501 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.61
České Budějovice xG
41%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice?
Baník Ostrava 2 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice part of?
Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 74% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice?
Record (6 meetings): Baník Ostrava 3W | Draws 0 | České Budějovice 3W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. České Budějovice (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baník Ostrava's attack rating (1.02) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 3-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
74%
1.36
17%
5.76
9%
11.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.80
0.61
České Budějovice xG
1.36
74%
Home win
5.76
17%
Draw
11.20
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
11%
8.95
Win to Nil
40%
2.50
1%
100.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.61 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 18W 9D 16L from 43 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 25L across 43 games — 0.79 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over České Budějovice heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 9W 5D 6L from 20 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 0W 6D 14L across 20 trips, a 0.30 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 18W 9D 16L in their last 43 games (1.47 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 8W 10D 25L in their last 43 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or České Budějovice away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.60 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.30 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or České Budějovice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, České Budějovice in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Baník Ostrava have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2025, when Baník Ostrava won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
0
Draws
3
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice?
From 8 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 5, České Budějovice have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when České Budějovice 0-4 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 40%, České Budějovice 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Baník Ostrava) and 60% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; České Budějovice in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 55% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 60% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out České Budějovice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat České Budějovice 2-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 2.19 xG and České Budějovice 0.61 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.02 / defence 0.76 against České Budějovice attack 0.71 / defence 1.50, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 74% | Draw 17% | České Budějovice 9%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 49%, České Budějovice 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
České Budějovice's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.