Slovan Liberec 2-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 meet at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Slovan Liberec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadion u Nisy — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at Stadion u Nisy than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.10 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Slovan Liberec lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 56% versus Bohemians 1905 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 49% | Bohemians 1905 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.26 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.045 / defence 0.868 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.843 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.048. Data: 37 Slovan Liberec games / 37 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 48% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 23%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 1905 4.35. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. This conflicts with form data: Slovan Liberec 50% | Bohemians 1905 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 48% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.26 / Bohemians 1905 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.045 / def 0.868 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.843 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Bohemians 1905 xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Slovan Liberec 2 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 48% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905?
Record (4 meetings): Slovan Liberec 1W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 2W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 1.04x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.84x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
48%
2.09
29%
3.40
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.02
0.77
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
6%
15.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.7 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.77 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 12W 12D 15L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 9W 14D 16L from 39 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.05 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (9W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Slovan Liberec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 8D 8L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.95 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 9W 14D 16L in their last 39 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.68 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-1 on 4 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovan Liberec
5
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 2, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 47%, Bohemians 1905 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Slovan Liberec) and 53% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Slovan Liberec's games and 63% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 53% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 finished level at 2-2 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.26 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.77 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.04 / defence 0.87 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.84 / defence 0.85, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 48% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 23%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 49%, Bohemians 1905 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.23 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.