Teplice 0-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Baník Ostrava at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 22 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Teplice — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Baník Ostrava have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Baník Ostrava away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Baník Ostrava — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Teplice, 2 for Baník Ostrava and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended Teplice 1–2 Baník Ostrava — a Baník Ostrava win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 63% and Baník Ostrava 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 59% | Baník Ostrava 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 0.92 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.626 / defence 0.728 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.095 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.804 / away 1.214. Teplice's attack rating of 0.626 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Teplice have a tight defence (rating 0.728), which is pulling Baník Ostrava's projected output down. Data: built from Teplice's last 41 games and Baník Ostrava's last 41.
Result probabilities: Teplice 32% | Draw 33% | Baník Ostrava 35%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.10 | Draw 3.05 | Baník Ostrava 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 71% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Teplice's last 10 home games and Baník Ostrava's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Teplice 50% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 32% | Draw 33% | Baník Ostrava 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Teplice 0.92 / Baník Ostrava 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.626 / def 0.728 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.095 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.804 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Baník Ostrava xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 22 October 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Teplice 0 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 32% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Teplice and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Teplice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.63x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 41 games and Baník Ostrava's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
32%
3.10
33%
3.05
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Teplice xG
Total xG
1.88
0.97
Baník Ostrava xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 14.7 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Teplice and 0.97 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 14W 13D 19L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 16W 12D 18L from 46 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.20 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 22 home games (8W 9D 5L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 9D 9L from their last 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Teplice are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.54 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Baník Ostrava in 61%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Teplice (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Teplice vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 14W 13D 19L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 16W 12D 18L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Teplice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.50 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Teplice have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won Teplice 0-5 Baník Ostrava.
Teplice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Teplice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 54%, Baník Ostrava 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Teplice) and 50% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Baník Ostrava matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Teplice's games and 68% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Teplice and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Teplice's recent games and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Teplice's recent matches and 64% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 0.92 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.97 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.63 / defence 0.73 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 32% | Draw 33% | Baník Ostrava 35%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 59%, Baník Ostrava 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.20 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.