Slovan Liberec 3-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Slovan Liberec welcome Plzen to Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 21 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Slovan Liberec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Plzen stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Plzen's 2.20 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Slovan Liberec's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Slovan Liberec's games and 70% of Plzen's (from Slovan Liberec's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Slovan Liberec, 2 for Plzen and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2023, ended Slovan Liberec 1–2 Plzen — a Plzen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slovan Liberec 62% and Plzen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 60% | Plzen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.62 xG and Plzen 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.012 / defence 1.245 | Plzen attack 1.627 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.186. Plzen have an above-average attack rating of 1.627, which lifts their away xG to 2.40. Slovan Liberec's defence rating of 1.245 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Plzen's projected output up. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 41 games and Plzen's last 40.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 25% | Draw 20% | Plzen 55%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 3.94 | Draw 5.09 | Plzen 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.62 / 2.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Slovan Liberec's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 60% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 25% | Draw 20% | Plzen 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Slovan Liberec 1.62 / Plzen 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.012 / def 1.245 | Plzen attack 1.627 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Plzen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
2.40
Plzen xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Plzen FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Plzen kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Slovan Liberec 3 - 0 Plzen.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Plzen part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 25% chance of winning, Plzen a 55% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slovan Liberec vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Plzen's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 2.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 41 games and Plzen's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
25%
3.94
20%
5.09
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
4.02
2.40
Plzen xG
3.94
25%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.72
Clean Sheet
9%
11.06
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
2%
43.56
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 2.40 for Plzen, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Plzen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovan Liberec's recent record stands at 14W 12D 19L from 45 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 25W 8D 12L across 45 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slovan Liberec heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Slovan Liberec have managed 7W 5D 9L from their last 21 home games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plzen's away record stands at 10W 4D 7L across their last 21 away games, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.00 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovan Liberec have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Plzen in 64%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Plzen
Blended
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and Plzen in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 14W 12D 19L in their last 45 games (1.20 PPG), while Plzen have gone 25W 8D 12L in their last 45 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.24 PPG; Plzen away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Oct 2023, when Slovan Liberec won Slovan Liberec 3-0 Plzen.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
2
Draws
5
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Plzen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Plzen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: Plzen 1-3 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 57%, Plzen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Slovan Liberec) and 62% (Plzen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and Plzen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Slovan Liberec's games and 62% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Slovan Liberec and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Slovan Liberec's matches and 62% of Plzen's.
Do Slovan Liberec and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 81% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovan Liberec run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Plzen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Plzen 3-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.62 xG and Plzen 2.40 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.01 / defence 1.25 against Plzen attack 1.63 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 25% | Draw 20% | Plzen 55%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Slovan Liberec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 60%, Plzen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Plzen's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Slovan Liberec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.