Hradec Králové 1-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hradec Králové face Teplice.

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Match Analysis

Hradec Králové host Teplice at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Hradec Králové stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Hradec Králové at home: 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Teplice — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Teplice's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hradec Králové at 1.00 PPG versus Teplice's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Hradec Králové, 1 for Teplice and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2023, ended Hradec Králové 0–1 Teplice — a Teplice win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Hradec Králové trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Teplice trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 52% versus Teplice 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 52% | Teplice 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hradec Králové surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Teplice have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.73 xG and Teplice 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.972 / defence 1.129 | Teplice attack 0.987 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.203. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 42 games and Teplice's last 42.

Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 24% | Teplice 30%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.14 | Draw 4.25 | Teplice 3.35. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.73 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 50% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 70% (last 10 away games).

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