Karviná 1-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 55%, yet in-form Hradec Králové provide a compelling counter-argument — this Karviná vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Karviná welcome Hradec Králové to Městský Stadión. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Karviná — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná at Městský Stadión this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Karviná are significantly better at Městský Stadión than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hradec Králové — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Karviná register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Hradec Králové in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Karviná, 1 for Hradec Králové and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Karviná in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karviná 73% and Hradec Králové 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 64% | Hradec Králové 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 2.03 xG and Hradec Králové 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 1.035 / defence 1.219 | Hradec Králové attack 0.871 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.186. Data: 11 Karviná games / 41 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 55% | Draw 22% | Hradec Králové 23%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Hradec Králové 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Karviná (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 80% | Hradec Králové 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 55% | Draw 22% | Hradec Králové 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Karviná 2.03 / Hradec Králové 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 1.035 / def 1.219 | Hradec Králové attack 0.871 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Karviná (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Hradec Králové xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Karviná vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Karviná 1 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Karviná vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Hradec Králové part of?
Karviná vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 55% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Karviná and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Hradec Králové?
Record (2 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are Karviná and Hradec Králové in?
Karviná (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Karviná's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.57
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Karviná xG
Total xG
3.29
1.26
Hradec Králové xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
3%
32.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Karviná and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Karviná and 1.26 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Hradec Králové?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 1D 8L for 0.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karviná on 0.64 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Karviná's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.64 PPG overall — Karviná are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 0.40 points per game from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karviná come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.27 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Hradec Králové in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 2W 1D 8L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Hradec Králové away?
Karviná's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.40 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Karviná have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Hradec Králové won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karviná's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Karviná
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Karviná 4-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Karviná at 80%, Hradec Králové at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Karviná) and 40% (Hradec Králové).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Karviná's games and 80% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Karviná's recent games and 40% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karviná edge out Hradec Králové 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 2.03 xG and Hradec Králové 1.26 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Karviná fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.03 / defence 1.22 against Hradec Králové attack 0.87 / defence 1.11, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 55% | Draw 22% | Hradec Králové 23%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 64%, Hradec Králové 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 0.64 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.