FK Jablonec 0-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FK Jablonec face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga (matchday 12). Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bohemians 1905 away from home: 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for FK Jablonec, 1.10 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for FK Jablonec, 2 for Bohemians 1905 and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended FK Jablonec 1–4 Bohemians 1905 — a Bohemians 1905 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 63% versus Bohemians 1905 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 56% | Bohemians 1905 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.50 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.915 / defence 1.083 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.807 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.203. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 41 games and Bohemians 1905's last 41.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 26%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.10 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 1905 3.78. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 70% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG FK Jablonec 1.50 / Bohemians 1905 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.915 / def 1.083 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.807 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Bohemians 1905 xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
FK Jablonec 0 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 48% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.81x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 41 games and Bohemians 1905's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.85
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.55
1.05
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
6%
16.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.05 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 46 games, going 11W 15D 20L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.43 PPG from 46 outings (19W 9D 18L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.43 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FK Jablonec's home form reads 7W 9D 6L across their last 22 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.45 points per game from their last 22 away games (10W 2D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.43 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Bohemians 1905 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 11W 15D 20L in their last 46 games (1.04 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 19W 9D 18L in their last 46 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.36 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905, the earliest from July 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 2 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won FK Jablonec 0-3 Bohemians 1905 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 September 2026: Bohemians 1905 1-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 64%, Bohemians 1905 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 59% (Bohemians 1905).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FK Jablonec's games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 59% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 77% of Bohemians 1905's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat FK Jablonec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat FK Jablonec 0-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.50 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.05 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FK Jablonec fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.81 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 26%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 56%, Bohemians 1905 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.04 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.