Slovácko 2-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slovácko face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Slovácko welcome Teplice to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Slovácko have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Slovácko's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Teplice stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Teplice have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Slovácko at 1.70 PPG versus Teplice's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Slovácko, 0 for Teplice and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Slovácko 3–1 Teplice — a Slovácko win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 42% versus Teplice 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 44% | Teplice 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Slovácko surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Teplice have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.56 xG and Teplice 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.882 / defence 0.869 | Teplice attack 1.083 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.769 / away 1.196. Data: built from Slovácko's last 40 games and Teplice's last 40.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 47% | Draw 25% | Teplice 27%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.11 | Draw 3.97 | Teplice 3.65. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovácko 40% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 11 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 47% | Draw 25% | Teplice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Slovácko 1.56 / Teplice 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.882 / def 0.869 | Teplice attack 1.083 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.769 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Teplice xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovácko vs Teplice FAQs
What time does Slovácko vs Teplice kick off?
Slovácko vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Teplice?
Slovácko 2 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Slovácko vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Teplice part of?
Slovácko vs Teplice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 11) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 47% chance of winning, Teplice a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Slovácko and Teplice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slovácko vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.88) and Teplice's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slovácko's last 40 games and Teplice's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
47%
2.11
25%
3.97
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.69
1.13
Teplice xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
6%
17.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovácko vs Teplice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.13 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko's recent record stands at 18W 13D 14L from 45 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 18L across 45 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 1.49 PPG, Teplice on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 11W 6D 5L from their last 22 home games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 6W 3D 13L across their last 22 away games, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.22 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice in 64%.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Teplice
Blended
Slovácko (Home) vs Teplice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovácko
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Slovácko vs Teplice Form FAQs
What form are Slovácko and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 18W 13D 14L in their last 45 games (1.49 PPG), while Teplice have gone 14W 13D 18L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Teplice away?
Slovácko's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.77 PPG; Teplice away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Teplice in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovácko's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
2
Draws
5
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovácko vs Teplice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Teplice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovácko have won 3, Teplice have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Teplice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Slovácko 1-3 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 41%, Teplice 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Slovácko) and 82% (Teplice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovácko vs Teplice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovácko and Teplice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Slovácko's games and 73% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Slovácko and Teplice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of Slovácko's matches and 82% of Teplice's.
Do Slovácko and Teplice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Slovácko's recent matches and 73% of Teplice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovácko cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Teplice 2-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.56 xG and Teplice 1.13 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Teplice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.88 / defence 0.87 against Teplice attack 1.08 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 47% | Draw 25% | Teplice 27%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 44%, Teplice 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Teplice's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.49 PPG, Teplice 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.