Sparta Praha 2-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sparta Praha welcome Hradec Králové to epet ARENA in Czech Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 15 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Sparta Praha have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hradec Králové — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Hradec Králové away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Sparta Praha) versus 1.70 (Hradec Králové). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 90% of Sparta Praha's games and 60% of Hradec Králové's (from Sparta Praha's last 10 home games and Hradec Králové's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Sparta Praha hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 6 wins compared to 1 for Hradec Králové and 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended Sparta Praha 1–2 Hradec Králové — a Hradec Králové win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Sparta Praha and goals — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 2.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 67% versus Hradec Králové 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 64% | Hradec Králové 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.87 xG and Hradec Králové 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.214 / defence 1.189 | Hradec Králové attack 1.002 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.209. Data: built from Sparta Praha's last 51 games and Hradec Králové's last 51.
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 47% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 29%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.14 | Draw 4.05 | Hradec Králové 3.49. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.87 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Sparta Praha 6 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sparta Praha's last 10 home games and Hradec Králové's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sparta Praha 90% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 47% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Sparta Praha 1.87 / Hradec Králové 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.214 / def 1.189 | Hradec Králové attack 1.002 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Hradec Králové xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové FAQs
What time does Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Sparta Praha 2 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 47% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.21x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sparta Praha's last 51 games and Hradec Králové's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
47%
2.14
25%
4.05
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.31
1.44
Hradec Králové xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
4%
22.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.44 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Praha come into this having played 55 games, going 31W 11D 13L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.44 PPG from 55 outings (22W 13D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sparta Praha's home form reads 15W 6D 5L across their last 26 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.23 points per game from their last 26 away games (9W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Praha are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.33 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
Sparta Praha (Home) vs Hradec Králové (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Praha
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 31W 11D 13L in their last 55 games (1.89 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 22W 13D 20L in their last 55 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Hradec Králové away?
Sparta Praha's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 1.96 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Feb 2025, when Sparta Praha won Sparta Praha 3-0 Hradec Králové.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
0
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Praha have won 8, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Hradec Králové 2-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 77%, Hradec Králové 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Sparta Praha and 58% for Hradec Králové. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Sparta Praha's games and 46% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Sparta Praha's matches and 58% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 65% of Hradec Králové's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Hradec Králové 2-0 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.87 xG and Hradec Králové 1.44 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.21 / defence 1.19 against Hradec Králové attack 1.00 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 47% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 29%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 64%, Hradec Králové 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.