Bohemians 1905 1-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Zlin travel to Stadion Ďolíček to take on Bohemians 1905. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 4L across 9 games at Stadion Ďolíček this term (1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Zlin — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 5L across 9 road games this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1905 0.60 PPG, Zlin 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Zlin trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 68% and Zlin 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bohemians 1905 79% | Zlin 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.75 xG and Zlin 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.067 / defence 1.279 | Zlin attack 0.687 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.252. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Bohemians 1905 games / 19 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 53% | Draw 24% | Zlin 24%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Zlin 4.17. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 78% | Zlin 56% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 53% | Draw 24% | Zlin 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.75 / Zlin 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.067 / def 1.279 | Zlin attack 0.687 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Zlin xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 53% chance of winning, Zlin a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Zlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (1.07) and Zlin's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.24
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.85
1.10
Zlin xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
4%
24.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.10 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 5W 2D 12L from 19 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 10L across 19 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 0.89 PPG, Zlin on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 4W 1D 4L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Bohemians 1905 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Zlin's away record stands at 2W 2D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 2.32 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.21 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zlin in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 5W 2D 12L in their last 19 games (0.89 PPG), while Zlin have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Zlin away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.44 PPG; Zlin away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 7, Zlin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Zlin 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Zlin?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zlin see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bohemians 1905 at 78%, Zlin at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Bohemians 1905 and 56% for Zlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Bohemians 1905's games and 56% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 56% of Zlin's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Zlin tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Zlin in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Zlin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Zlin 1-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.75 xG and Zlin 1.10 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zlin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.07 / defence 1.28 against Zlin attack 0.69 / defence 1.31, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 53% | Draw 24% | Zlin 24%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 79%, Zlin 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Zlin's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 0.89 PPG, Zlin 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.