Baník Ostrava 2-4 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Baník Ostrava welcome Teplice to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 1L across 9 games at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.78 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Baník Ostrava have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 75% and Teplice 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Baník Ostrava 75% | Teplice 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 2.48 xG and Teplice 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.366 / defence 1.279 | Teplice attack 0.834 / defence 1.461. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.251. Baník Ostrava carry an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — their λ of 2.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.461 — this is suppressing Baník Ostrava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Baník Ostrava games / 20 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 63% | Draw 18% | Teplice 19%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 1.59 | Draw 5.56 | Teplice 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.48 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 89% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 63% | Draw 18% | Teplice 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 68% | xG Baník Ostrava 2.48 / Teplice 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.366 / def 1.279 | Teplice attack 0.834 / def 1.461 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Teplice xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Teplice kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Teplice kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Baník Ostrava 2 - 4 Teplice.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 63% chance of winning, Teplice a 19% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Teplice in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Teplice (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.48. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
63%
1.60
18%
5.47
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.82
1.33
Teplice xG
1.60
63%
Home win
5.47
18%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
8%
11.97
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
2%
62.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.33 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Baník Ostrava have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 11W 6D 3L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 4W 2D 14L from 20 games, 0.70 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Baník Ostrava are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baník Ostrava have posted 2.00 PPG from 9 outings (5W 3D 1L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.00 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Teplice in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 11W 6D 3L in their last 20 games (1.95 PPG), while Teplice have gone 4W 2D 14L in their last 20 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Teplice away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 2.00 PPG; Teplice away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Teplice have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 6, Teplice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Teplice?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baník Ostrava at 89%, Teplice at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 89% for Baník Ostrava and 78% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 78% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Baník Ostrava's games and 56% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 78% of Teplice's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Teplice tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Teplice in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Baník Ostrava 2-4 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 2.48 xG and Teplice 1.33 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Teplice outscored their 1.33 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.37 / defence 1.28 against Teplice attack 0.83 / defence 1.46, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 63% | Draw 18% | Teplice 19%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Teplice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 75%, Teplice 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Teplice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.