Karviná 1-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and FK Jablonec meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Karviná (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's form when playing at home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 games at Městský Stadión this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FK Jablonec have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
FK Jablonec arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Karviná 0W, FK Jablonec 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with FK Jablonec winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Karviná — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 55% versus FK Jablonec 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 50% | FK Jablonec 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.46 xG and FK Jablonec 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.824 / defence 1.287 | FK Jablonec attack 0.700 / defence 1.436. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.294. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.436 — this is suppressing Karviná's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Karviná games / 20 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 44% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 30%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | FK Jablonec 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FK Jablonec (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 80% | FK Jablonec 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 44% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Karviná 1.46 / FK Jablonec 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.824 / def 1.287 | FK Jablonec attack 0.700 / def 1.436 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Karviná (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.17
FK Jablonec xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Karviná vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs FK Jablonec?
Karviná 1 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Karviná vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs FK Jablonec part of?
Karviná vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 44% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Karviná and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and FK Jablonec?
Record (1 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 0 | FK Jablonec 1W.
What form are Karviná and FK Jablonec in?
Karviná (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Karviná's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.70x) against Karviná's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.86
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.63
1.17
FK Jablonec xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
7%
14.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Karviná and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Karviná and 1.17 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karviná come into this having played 20 games, going 1W 5D 14L for 0.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 0.95 PPG from 20 outings (4W 7D 9L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Karviná's home form reads 0W 4D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.40 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karviná are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.75 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 1W 5D 14L in their last 20 games (0.40 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 4W 7D 9L in their last 20 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or FK Jablonec away?
FK Jablonec's away record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.40 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Karviná
3
Draws
6
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 80%, FK Jablonec 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Karviná and 70% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play FK Jablonec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Karviná's games and 40% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Karviná's matches and 70% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Karviná and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná and FK Jablonec finished level at 1-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.46 xG and FK Jablonec 1.17 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.82 / defence 1.29 against FK Jablonec attack 0.70 / defence 1.44, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 44% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 30%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 50%, FK Jablonec 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 0.95 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.